Malo Otchuka Posachedwapa mu Ma Transformer Apakati ndi Amphamvu Padziko Lonse (2025-2026)

1. Kukweza Miyezo Yogwiritsira Ntchito Mphamvu Moyenera ndi Kusintha kwa Zobiriwira: Kusintha kwa Mphamvu Zatsopano Monga Chiyambi​

Padziko lonse lapansi, zofunikira pakugwiritsa ntchito bwino mphamvu zamagetsi zapakati ndi Chosinthira Chamagetsi ChapamwambaKuchuluka kwa magetsi kukuchulukirachulukira, ndipo kusowa kwa miyezo yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu moyenera kumbali yatsopano yopanga mphamvu kwakhala vuto lalikulu m'zaka zaposachedwa. Mu Epulo 2024, China idatulutsa mtundu watsopano wa Ma Minimum Allowable Values ​​of Energy Efficiency and Energy Efficiency Grades for Power Transformers (GB20052-2024), womwe udakhazikitsidwa mwalamulo mu February 2025. Kwa nthawi yoyamba, muyezo uwu umaphatikizapo ma transformer a 6kV-66kV opangira mphamvu zatsopano (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage)​ m'malamulo ofunikira ogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu moyenera, kuphatikizapo zochitika zazikulu zamagetsi pa kulumikizana kwatsopano kwa gridi yamagetsi (monga, ma transformer a 35kV omizidwa/ouma amakhala ndi ntchito zoposa 95% mu gawo latsopano lamagetsi).

Cholinga chachikulu cha kukweza kwa muyezo ndikuchepetsa kutayika kwa magetsi kuchokera ku mphamvu zatsopano. Potengera ma transformer a 35kV omwe amathiridwa mafuta m'mbali mwa chitsanzo, kutayika kwa mphamvu zopanda katundu kwa Giredi 3 motsatira muyezo watsopano kwatsika ndi 30% poyerekeza ndi mtundu wakale (GB6451-2015), ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu moyenera kwa Giredi 1 kwatsika ndi 10% ina; kutayika kwa ma transformer ouma a 35kV opanda katundu (Giredi 3) kwatsika ndi 20% poyerekeza ndi muyezo wamakampani (NB/T31062-2014). Malinga ndi kuyerekezera, ngati ma transformer atsopano onse ku China asinthidwa kuchoka pa giredi S11 kupita ku giredi S20, kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni kungachepe ndi matani 55 miliyoni, zomwe ndi zofanana ndi nthawi 2.8 kuposa kupanga mphamvu kwa Gezhouba Hydropower Station mu 2021.

Kukhazikitsa muyezo kumeneku sikuti kumangolimbikitsa kusintha kwa makampani opanga ma transformer ku China kuti agwire bwino ntchito komanso kuti achepetse mpweya woipa koma kumaperekanso njira yofunika kwambiri yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu moyenera polumikizira magetsi atsopano padziko lonse lapansi.

1. Smart Grid ndi AI Demand-Drived: Solid-State Transformers (SSTs) Amakhala Mutu wa M'badwo Wotsatira​

Ndi kuphulika kwa mphamvu ya makompyuta ya AI (monga, kuphunzitsa ChatGPT mitundu ikuluikulu kumadya magetsi ambiri m'masiku atatu monga magalimoto 3,000 a Tesla omwe amayendetsa makilomita 320,000) komanso kufulumizitsa ntchito yomanga ma gridi anzeru, ma transformer achikhalidwe sangathenso kukwaniritsa zofunikira za mphamvu zambiri komanso malamulo osinthasintha. Ma transformer a Solid-state (SST), omwe ali ndi ubwino wochepa, magwiridwe antchito apamwamba, komanso kuthandizira kuyenda kwa magetsi mbali zonse ziwiri, akhala malo ofunikira kwambiri pa kafukufuku waukadaulo komanso chidwi cha msika.

Ma SST amagwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wosinthira magetsi wamagetsi wamagetsi wamagetsi amphamvu kwambiri. Poyerekeza ndi ma transformer achikhalidwe a mafakitale, amachepetsa voliyumu ndi 50%-80% ndi kulemera ndi 60%-80%, ndipo amatha kukwaniritsa malamulo amagetsi amphamvu a millisecond komanso kutulutsa magetsi kosalekeza, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti akhale oyenera kwambiri pazinthu monga malo osungira deta a AI, kulumikizana kwatsopano kwa gridi yamagetsi, ndi malo ochapira mwachangu kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, pepala loyera laposachedwa la NVIDIA limalemba ma SST ngati njira yabwino kwambiri yoperekera magetsi apakati m'malo osungira deta, ndipo makampani monga Jinpan Technology amaliza kupanga zitsanzo za SST ndikutumiza zitsanzo ku NVIDIA.

Ngakhale kuti ma SST akadali mu gawo lotsimikizira mtundu/magawo ang'onoang'ono (akuyembekezeka kugulitsidwa pamlingo waukulu kuyambira 2028 mpaka 2030), ziyembekezo zamsika ndizambiri—Lipoti la kafukufuku wa Guangda Securities likuwonetsa kuti ma SST akuyembekezeka kukhala chitukuko m'mipata yamagetsi yoyendetsedwa ndi mawilo awiri a "AI + mphamvu yatsopano," ndi kukula kwa msika kukukula kuchoka pa 6 biliyoni yuan mu 2024 kufika pa 26.4 biliyoni yuan mu 2027 (CAGR ya pafupifupi 64%).

1. Kusowa kwa Zinthu Padziko Lonse ndi Ubwino wa ku China: Kulamulira Kodziyimira Payokha kwa Makampani Onse Kumakhala Mpikisano Waukulu​

Padziko lonse lapansi, ma transformer apakati ndi okwera kwambiri akukumana ndi kusowa kwakukulu kwa magetsi: kusiyana kwa magetsi kwa ma transformer amagetsi ku United States kwakwera ndi 116% poyerekeza ndi 2019, kukonzedwa kwa gridi ku Europe kukupita patsogolo pang'onopang'ono chifukwa cha kusowa kwa ma transformer, ndipo mapulojekiti akuluakulu a dzuwa ku India sakugwira ntchito poyembekezera ma transformer. Poganizira izi, China, yokhala ndi 60% ya mphamvu zopangira padziko lonse lapansi, yakhala yopindula kwambiri.

Ubwino waukulu wa China mu ma transformer uli mu kulamulira kodziyimira pawokha kwa makampani onse:

Zipangizo Zazikulu: Kupanga kwa chitsulo cha silicon (chomwe ndi "mtima" wa ma transformer) kunafika matani 3.0325 miliyoni (2024), kuwirikiza kasanu kuposa Japan ndi kuwirikiza kasanu ndi katatu kuposa United States. Baosteel Group yamanga mzere wokhawo wokhawo wopyapyala kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wa 0.18mm, ndipo ntchito yake ikuyenda bwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi;

Ukadaulo ndi Luso: China Electrical Equipment Group yaphatikiza mabizinesi monga XD, Baobian, ndi Shandong Electrical Engineering kuti apange mitundu yonse ya "UHV + mphamvu zatsopano". Mabizinesi achinsinsi monga Xinjiang Tebian ndi Jiangsu Huapeng akutsogolera padziko lonse lapansi pakutumiza kunja kwa transformer yatsopano yamagetsi;

Kugwira Ntchito Mwachangu: Nthawi yotumizira ma transformer ku China (monga miyezi 10 ya ma transformer akuluakulu a UHV) ndi yochepa kwambiri kuposa ya ku Europe ndi United States (miyezi yoposa 18), ndipo mitengo yake ndi yotsika (zogulitsa zomwezo ndi theka la mtengo wa zomwe zili ku Europe ndi America).

Kuyambira Januwale mpaka Ogasiti 2025, mtengo wa transformer ku China wotumizira kunja unafika pa 29.711 biliyoni yuan, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 36.3%, pomwe msika waku Europe unakwera ndi 138%. Makasitomala ena ali okonzeka kulipira 20% kuti atsimikizire kuti zinthu zikupezeka.

1. Kupita Patsogolo kwa Ukadaulo ndi Kukweza Mafakitale: UHV ndi Mphamvu ya Mphepo ya Kunja kwa Nyanja monga Madera Ofunika​

Posachedwapa, makampani aku China apeza chitukuko chachikulu chaukadaulo mu UHV ndi mphamvu ya mphepo ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja ndi minda ina yamagetsi apamwamba apakati ndi okwera, zomwe zalimbikitsa kukweza mafakitale:

Ma Transformers a UHV: Transformer ya kampani ya Shenbian ya ±800kV UHV DC yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito pa projekiti ya Jinshang-Hubei UHV imakweza milingo yoteteza magetsi kumbali ya netiweki ndi 5%; Transformer ya jenereta ya Xidian Xibian ya 1000kV UHV imatsimikizira kuti mapulojekiti amagetsi opangidwa ndi malasha okwana ma kilowatt miliyoni amagwira ntchito nthawi yake;

Ma Transformer a Mphamvu ya Mphepo Ochokera Kunja: Kampani ya Shenbian idayambitsa transformer yoyamba padziko lonse ya 20Hz yamphamvu ya mphepo yochokera kunyanja, yosinthidwa kuti ikhale ndi ma gridi osinthasintha afupipafupi, kuchepetsa kutayika kwa ma transmission ndi 15%-20%, ndipo idagwiritsidwa ntchito ku famu ya mphepo ya kunyanja ya Huaene Yuhuan Phase II;

Ma Smart Transformers: Kampani ya Shandong Electrical Engineering Equipment Company idapanga transformer yaying'ono ya 220kV yokhala ndi ma winding atatu, yomwe imachepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito chitsulo kudzera mu kukonza bwino kapangidwe kake (monga kapangidwe kolimbitsa mbale ya thanki) ndikuwonjezera magwiridwe antchito ndi 35%, pomwe mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito bwino zimaposa miyezo ya dziko lonse.

1. Zachuma Zozungulira ndi Kupanganso: Njira Yatsopano Yosinthira Zobiriwira​

Ndi kupita patsogolo kwa njira ya "dual carbon", kukonzanso transformer​ kwakhala malo atsopano ofunikira kwambiri mumakampani. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. imagwiritsa ntchito "digital nerve implantation" (ma chips ozindikira anzeru) ndi "kukonzanso ziwalo" (kukonzanso coil insulation, insulating oil deep dialysis) kuti isinthe ma transformer a 220kV omwe sanagwiritsidwe ntchito kukhala zida zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu moyenera kuposa miyezo ya dziko lonse ya Giredi 1. Mtengo wake ndi 60% yokha ya zinthu zatsopano, ndipo chipangizo chimodzi chopangidwanso chingasunge 70% ya ndalama zogulira ndikubwezeretsa nthawi yomanga yofunika.

Chitsanzochi sichimangochepetsa mtengo wokonzanso gridi komanso chimachepetsa kuwononga zinthu—malinga ndi kuyerekezera, kuchepetsa mpweya woipa wochokera ku malo okonzanso zinthu kuli kofanana ndi kubzala maekala zikwizikwi a nkhalango, mogwirizana ndi njira yopititsira patsogolo chitukuko cha "chuma chozungulira."